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By Michael Crosson
VegasInsider.com
We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 11. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 11.
Sign up to receive daily news from VegasInsiderWild Card Weekend in the NFL is finally here and after getting warmed up with three great matchups on Saturday, I'm even more ready for Sunday’s slate of games with a variety of parlay and prop suggestions to help handicap all the action.
Baltimore at Tennessee (1:05 p.m. ET)
Chicago at New Orleans (4:40 p.m. ET)
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET)
My selections for Sunday's action can be found below.
Good luck!
NFL Wild Card Teaser Best Bets
3-Team 6-Point Teaser
- Baltimore Ravens +3 at Tennessee
- New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs. Chicago
- Pittsburgh Steelers -0.5 vs. Cleveland
Payout: +140 at FanDuel
The first game on Sunday’s slate is between the Ravens and the Titans, which is a rematch from last year’s AFC Divisional Round game that Tennessee won, 28-12, behind 195 yards on the ground and a passing touchdown from running back Derrick Henry.
Do not anticipate a similar type of affair this time around though, considering this year’s Titans defense ranks 28th in total yards allowed per game (388.2), 32nd in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage (51.9%), and 24th in points allowed per game (27.4).
While Baltimore’s defense ranks second in the NFL in points allowed per game (18.9), 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (108.8), and 2nd in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage (34.1%).
I think the Ravens pose as a very difficult first round matchup for the Titans this week, and I expect Baltimore to win this game handedly through their run game.
If the Buccaneers received the easiest draw in the first round of this year’s playoffs by matching up with the Washington Football Team, then the Saints are a close runner-up as quarterback Mitch Trubisky and the Bears will pay a visit to the Superdome this week.
The Bears are a team that wins football games by dominating time of possession and battling for field position through their defense, but the problem for Chicago in this matchup is that they are inferior to New Orleans by a steep margin on both sides of the ball.
New Orleans’ defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (310.9), 5th in points allowed per game (21.1), and 9th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage (38.2%).
While Chicago’s offense ranks 22nd in points scored per game (23.2), 26th in yards per game (331.4), and 31st in 3rd down conversion percentage (34.6%).
I really think the Bears are going to struggle generating points on offense this week, I’ll take the Saints.
The Browns needed a win over the Steelers in Week 17 to punch their ticket to this year’s playoffs and they got it (24-22), but Cleveland’s slim victory last week can largely be attributed to the fact that head coach Mike Tomlin elected to rest his starters, including QB Ben Roethlisberger.
Cleveland will be without their head coach and offensive play-caller, Kevin Stefanski, after testing positive for COVID-19 earlier this week.
The Browns have had an admirable season thus far but even if Stefanski were able to call plays for the Browns in this game, I have to imagine that this is where Cleveland’s season will inevitably come to an end.
NFL Wild Card Prop Best Bets
Odds & Props Available at FanDuel
Baltimore RB J.K. Dobbins – Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
J.K. Dobbins didn’t become the Ravens lead back until after the team’s Week 8 bye, but since then the rookie has commanded over 52% of Baltimore’s offensive snap-count and punched in seven rushing touchdowns across his last seven games.
Back him to score another TD against a Titans’ defensive front ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed per game (120.8), 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.1), and 19th in yards allowed per attempt (4.5).
Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky – To Throw an Interception (-154)
The Bears’ offense looks much more dynamic with Mitch Trubisky at the helm than it did with Nick Foles, but if there is one downside to having Mitch on the field, it’s the fact that he can become very susceptible to turning the ball over, especially against top-tier defenses like New Orleans.
Back Trubisky to throw an interception in a fourth straight game against a Saints’ defense ranking 3rd in the league in takeaways per game (1.6).
Nfl Prop Bets
Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield – Over 234.5 Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield has an extremely difficult task on his hands this upcoming Sunday, as he will have to go to Pittsburgh without his head coach and top receiver and try to win a game against a team that was 11-0 at some point this season.
I don’t expect the Browns to pull off the upset, but I do expect them to remain competitive in this matchup and for Mayfield to put on a solid performance.
Nfl Prop Bets Today
Prior to last week’s win over the Steelers, Baker had thrown for over 234 yards in five consecutive contests. Back him to do it again in his postseason debut. Odds and Payouts per at FanDuel (Subject to Change)